S&P 500 - 2003

The following graph plots the year-to-date performance of the index for 2003 compared to the probability calculated by a random walk model.

Initial Value: 879.82 Hist. Volatility: 1.39% Annual Drift: 7% Final Value: 1111.92 Percentile: 78%
Click on the image for the high resolution version.

The high to date and low to date prices of the stock plotted against a random walk model for 2003 (what's this?).